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Realist Strategies in War (Balance of Power (Realist Paths to War (Power…
Realist Strategies in War
Nuclear Weapons & Concept of Deterrence
Blainey & Balance of Power
Power only revealed in strategic interaction
Balance of power (military) is clear only in immediate aftermath of a decisive
Power is complicated
Sources of military power multiple
Only partially observable
Power interacts in complex ways
States go to war when in disagreement about relative power
lmao this boy a bitch imma probably beat him
When is War most Likely
Waltz
Imbalanced distribution of power
Rising power will come into conflict with declining power
Security dilemma is acute
Blainey
Balanced distribution of power
Rough parity in power increases chances that states will clash
History of Nukes
WWII
1939: Einstein warns roosevelt
Manhattan Project
How to enrich uranium
1945: Nukes used on hiroshima
USSR
Stalin: Yo how do we make a bomb what
Stalin sends spies to find out about Manhattan project
1949: Soviets drop bomb
Germans working on atom bomb
50s
Hydrogen bombs created
New delivery systems
ICBM
Increase in precision & range
Defense
Strategic Issues
First strike Capabilities
One hit KO
Second Strike Capabilities
Withstand nuke
Throw a nuke in response
MAD brings balance of power
Efforts at Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Cuban missile crisis
Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)
Missiles in turkey by US
Stalin wants nukes in Cuba
Triggers about world catastrophe
US & USSR Negotiation
SALT
First Treaty
Ceiling for number of nukes
Anti Ballistic Missiles Treaty
Can place one ABM at capital
One to protect nukes
Guaranteed Second Strike
Real world IR Theory
START
Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (1968)
Non proliferation
5 states with nukes
No more
Safeguards
Disarmament
Some point get rid of nukes
Right to peacefully use nuclear material for civilian purposes
Reason to join
Issues
State acknowledgement
4 states with nukes that arent in
Israel
North Korea
Pakistan
India
2 more items...
Signed but violated
Iraq
Iran
Libya
MAN FUCK SAUDI I HATE THIS PLACE
Syria
Critisms
Hypocritical
Not taken seriously
5 state idea
Unfair
These states aren't disarming
Deterrence
Discourages potential aggressor from attacking by convincing state that probable cost of attacking will far exceed any anticipated gains
Conditions for deterrence to succed
Commitment / Clarity
Drawing line in Sand
Red line
Capability
Can carry out punishment
Credibility
Grown soft
Other Issues with Deterrence
Rationality
Value
What does target value the most
Self-discipline / State Capability
Can target control itself?
Sub actors
Pakistan & ISI
Balance of Power
Defining Power
System Level
Earlier ideals are reductivist
Primary cause of war found at system level
Distribution of power
A has power over B if A can get B to do something B would otherwise not do
Dahl
Unit Level
A has capability that can translate into military capabilities
Measuring power
Key Factors :warning:
Geography
Stopping power of water
Hegemon border ends at water
Mearshimer <3
Determines likelihood of hegemony
Economic Base
Technology
Population Size
Types of Forces
Nationalism
Skill
Regime Type
Tough Democracy Theory
Democracies are really good at war
Wont go to war until certain victory
Mearshimer
Realist Paths to War
Why wars happen
Fundamental conflict of interests
Not misunderstandings
Security dilemma
6 days war
Power Transition Theory
Preemptive war
The war is gonna happen eventually lets just knock them out now
Hegemonic War
Knock out top boss
Probability of Major War
Greatest at point when declining leader is being overtaken by rising challenger
Realist path to peace
Need to maintain balance of power
Internal
Building up military
External
Working with others
Bandwagon
Hop in with the rising power
Buck Passing
Let someone else bear cost of checking aggressor
Realist Strageties
Gaining power
War
Blackmail
Bait & Bleed
Your enemies fight each other
Blood letting
If rival in war; smack his ass
Checking Aggressors
Balancing
Buck Passing
Bandwagon
Appeasement
Causes of Power
War happens at a balance of power
Disagreement on how powerful countries are
Blainey
Hegemon
War happens at an imbalance of power
Power Transition Theory
Waltz