Please enable JavaScript.
Coggle requires JavaScript to display documents.
oil markets 1 (Energy mix (transportation (OECD demand forecast -- as…
oil markets 1
Energy mix
transportation
OECD demand forecast -- as saturation
non OECD ++
close correlation to GNI
η >> EVs impact on prices
rely 100% on oil
electricity
<< gas & coal
RE>> in the future
dvping c will stay +
China << latin america & MEA
petroX
oil --> plastic
will ++
1st place
50 --> 30% total energy use
easy store & transport --> eco of scale
dense energy fuel --> not easy replace it
versatile --> + uses
eco
100% transportat°
! eco, po, so strategy
indicator of $ country
exporting c rely on it
where
Middle EAst highly rely on it & gas
Asia demand ++
differential
differential between benchmarks
quality
middle distillate
gasoil/diesel/kerosene
API - = - quality
transportation
Mars
heavy : Western Canadian select
light product
API + = + quality = -transfo = +$
WTI, brent
gasoline/naphta/ethane
sulphur
++ sulphur = sour crude = need more process
processes
distillat° (boil --> evaporat°)
convers° (- size of molecules by heat or catalytic)
blending (removal of impurities)
inflexible facilities ($, specific type of crude)
supply/demand
seasonal behavior
externe : gas market/ regulat° / strikes...
market of 1 quality & infrastructure (Eu= light oil)
ex: Libya disrupt° & Japan demand + --> heavy oil produce + but noone want it
location : easy to get to market or not (boats Mexico)
differential between crude oil & raffined pcdt
refining margin =value pdts - value input crude oil
crack ratio = barrels of crude oil input: barrels of gasoline output: barrels of distillate fuel oil output
usual: 2:1:1; 3:2:1; 5:3:2
differential time spread
evolut° of international oil pricing system
1960-1973
producer not power to set oil price
posted price = set public by pdcer & consumer but not dynamic, steady. used to calculate taxes
7 sisters: vert & hor integrated; control supply chain
OPEC role: keep prices high
1973-1985
OPEC take responsibility for prices, meet increasing demand, not competitive
collapse of OPEC market share --> Saudi Arabia take the lead. then stop--> market-led
pdcer can't defend qty & $
free riding pbm
need dynamic equilibrium
competit° from outside & within OPEC