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Climate Change (Consequences are far reaching: (Weather – Changing…
Climate Change
Consequences are far reaching:
Weather – Changing precipitation patterns, drought, heat waves, extreme weather
Water – increased rainfall in tropics, high latitudes. Decreasing rainfall in middle
latitudes. Hundreds of millions experience water stress & strife
Ecosystems - 30% species at risk of extinction. Coral bleaching, increased species range shifts, increased wildfire risk
Food – Localized negative impacts for small holders, subsistence farmers, fishers. Cereal productivity decreases at lower latitudes. Increase in pests.
Coast – increased damage from floods, storms, millions could experience flooding each year. 30% global coast lines lost. Island nations most vulnerable
Health – Increasing malnutrition, diarrhea, cardiorespiratory and infectious disease. Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, droughts. Changed distribution of some disease vectors. Substantial burden on health systems
National security – geopolitical instability (water and food shortages, refugees)
long-term climate patterns:
Increases in surface albedo (reflectivity) and volcanic eruptions speed up cooling
Earth’s temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are coupled
CO2 concentrations (trapped in ice) were lower during glacial periods
The Holocene (last 10,000 years) is an interglacial period (when agriculture first arose)
During Pleist. (last 2 mil. yrs), earth has cycled btw glacial and interglacial periods
Milankovitch Cycles: Changes in Earth’s orbit influence amount and distribution of solar radiation in 100,000 year intervals
Paris Agreement
Enhancing the implementation of the 1992 UNFCCC
Strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development
◦ Holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre- industrial levels
Increasing the ability to adapt to adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience
Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development
Implemented to reflect equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (nationally determined contributions)
Entered into force on November 4, 2016; 194 UNFCCC signatories
Emphasizes both mitigation and adaptation
Obama administration played central role in Paris Climate Treaty
President Trump has called climate change “a hoax” – no one sure where his administration will go with respect to climate
Key Trump appointments vary on views about climate change
US could pull out of Paris climate treaty (4-year process)
US gives up leadership role/participation, much less likely Treaty will meet targets
China is eager to take on leadership (global good will, victor in clean energy revolution and decarbonizing economies)
Global 10 greenhouse gas emitters
Contribute 72% of global GG gas emissions
Energy sector is dominant source of GG emissions (>75%)
emission sources vary by country
◦ Agriculture significant in Brazil and Australia
Six of top 10 are now developing countries (emissions landscape is changing)
Per capita emissions vary significantly by country ◦ US per capita emissions 8 x those of India
1.China, 2. US, 3. EU, 4. India, 5. Russia, 6. Japan, 7. Brazil, 8. Indonesia, 9.Mexico, 10. Iran
Signs of Global Climate Change
Wetter conditions in some regions, drought in others
Change in length of growing season
Warmer sea surface temperatures may be associated with an increase in the number and strength of tropical storms....
Melting glaciers and ice sheets
Rising sea level