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Earthquake Prediction (To obtain predictions of of seismic events, there…
Earthquake Prediction
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To obtain predictions of of seismic events, there are efforts from short to long term predictions.
Short and Long term predictions: Not only when, but also where an earthquake is going to happen and what its magnitude and intensity will be.
Long term predictions: Time cycles are in the order of 50, 100 or up to 250 years.
Short and Medium term predictions: Obtain a method that is effective as prediction of meteorological phenomena.
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Mid-term prediction:Parkfield, USA.
Until today, the prediction of Parkfield has not been fulfilled.
Effort wasn't able to warn population with earthquake of 1989 in Dark Hill (Magnitude 7.1 with 63 people dead) or devastating event of Northridge (Magnitude 6.8 with about 57 people dead).
In 1984, impressive network of equipment installed in San André's Fault, a place already had a well-defined seismic pattern: an event with magnitude greater to 6.0 every 22 years.
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In Puerto Rico, studies of seismic vulnerability studies show probability between 33% and 50% of earthquake of strong intensity.
Low coastal zones more vulnerable to phenomena: tidal waves, liquefaction and amplification of seismic wave, while inside threat are landslides.
Geologic maps of particular zone examined, putting special attention on active faults and other geologic structures.
Correlated with distribution of intense historical earthquakes, models of seismic attenuation and other statistical data.
Result of these maps of seismic zones that identify the regions where different degrees of earthquake intensity can be anticipated.
Other phenomena as a result of the earthquake, such as tidal waves (tsunamis), liquefaction, seismic amplification and landslides.