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Earthquake Prediction (SHORT-TERM (Observations (Elevant of ground (Levels…
Earthquake Prediction
Objective
Short + Medium
Like meteorological phenomena
Long Term
Time cycles
50 years
100
250
All
When + Where + Magnitude
SHORT-TERM
China, 1975
Liaoning
province
Observations
Elevant of ground
Levels of phreatic mantle
Seismic activity
animal behavior
Government
Earthquake vigilance warning
earthquake alert
Evacuation order
1 day later
Magnitude 7.3
est. 250.000 saved
Exceptional case
Evident precursory elements
Tangshan Province, 1975
650.000 dead
MID-TERM
USA, 1984
Parkfield
San Andreas Fault
Well-defined seismic pattern
6 magnitude every 22 years
1988 - 1992 prediction
Seismic equipment
Levels of phreatic mantle
Electrical resistivity
Magnetic field
No earthquake
Dark Hill 1998
No Warning
Magnitude 7.1
63 deaths
LONG-TERM
Puerto Rico
Great earthquakes
Cycle of 83 years (avg)
Studies
Study recurrence of events
33-50% chance within 50 years
Study geological maps
Correlation
Other data
Identify high risk areas
Land use
Contingency Plans
No fool-proof method
Great advances made