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Fear of Being Obsolete (Solution (Predicting the probability for a…
Fear of Being Obsolete
Problem Statement
Situation Analysis
Raytheon's Color coded
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/1181938/?reload=true
Solution
Why this solution ?
US DoD estimated the cost of obsolescence mitigation $10 B
Understand risk level for each component
Support optimal product redesign
Helps reduce lifetime cost impact
Determine risk level for different design
Decisions made in design phase - contribute to 60-70% of cost during product's lifecycle.
Predicting the probability for
a component's obsolesence
Determining when the component will no longer be procurable
Component's risk index
Determine overall risk level
Predict date of unavailability
More accurate lifetime buy or last buy orders
How to implement
No starting from Scratch
M. Drake
Raytheon's Obsolescence Management
Apply Machine Learning
Obsolescence Risk Model
Input: List of Components
(like Bills of Materials)
ORML Model
Component Risk Level
1 more item...
Lifecycle Forecasting Model
Input: List of Components
(like Bills of Materials)
LFML Model
Predicted Date of Unavailability
1 more item...
1,00,000 Parts Data
Color Coded
Challenges
How to address these challenges ?
All the companies except BAE are into electronic components
Raytheon has database
US Contracts
Commercial Services
Lifecycle & Obsolescence Risk Forecasting
Silicon Expert
Limited to Electronic Component
https://www.siliconexpert.com/forecast-years-end-of-life
Total Parts Plus
BAE's AVCOM
QTEC Solutions
IHS
None of the companies offer both OR and LR together
Research paper reference