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The "thaw" in the U.S.-Cuba political relationship will be…

- - - - Cuban doesn’t need things like fast food and a Lowes store, we would be destroying the last piece of paradise. Cuba is like a living time capsule
      - Assimilating into american culture, good or bad thing?
      - Used to go on the midnight patrol with friend and dad who was a sergeant on south beach and witnessed people being killed, rapes, fights, all from the so called Marielitos
      - United states had nothing to do with these people and we will have nothing to do with all of the immigrants
      - Almost none of Cuban immigrants can speak English
    - - Tourism would destroy Cuban coral reefs and there are over 60 miles of it
    - - government in no rush
      - why would they want to lose power? no motives
      - Bettering relations is a long process because there is no specific way to do it, the officials must get together and fix and work out every little detail
      - “The United Nations Security Council noted—alas, on July 26— that the "unlawful shooting down by the Cuban Air Force of two civil aircraft on 24 February 1996 violated the principle that States must refrain from the use of weapons against civil aircraft in fiight," and condemned such Cuban behavior (UN, Security Council, 1996).”
        
        “The Cuban Air Force's actions and the hardline domestic crackdown forced President Clinton to make a decision. For the first time since the 1962 missile crisis, a president ofthe United States contemplated ordering the US armed forces to take military action against Cuba.*”
      - Many people say Cuban government needs to take the first step in bettering human rights in their country, we can’t do everything and they need to be the ones to take action, it is their country
      - On February 24, 1996, Fidel Castro's air force shot down two light aircraft manned by Cuban Americans off the Cuban coast. Suddenly, the gradual easing of U.S. relations with Cuba that had been under way for months shifted into reverse.
      - Cuban MiG fighters shot down two small Cessna aircraft flown by the Miami-based Brothers to the Rescue, which Havana said had penetrated Cuban airspace; a third Brothers plane returned to the States. Four men were killed. The Brothers, whose main actions had been searching for people fleeing Cuba by sea, had also flown over the island itself and even dropped leaflets on Havana.
        
        The outrage caused by the MiG attack derailed moves toward rapprochement and put Helms-Burton on a fast track into law. The toughest and most controversial provisions of the new legislation: give American citizens, including Cuban Americans, the right to seek damages from foreign companies that buy and use property expropriated since 1959; allow
- - - - Tourism
        
        Increased tourism for Cuba from Americans which could possibly be a huge catalyst for economic growth
        
        Increased tourism in southern cities such as Miami and possibly other northern places
      - “Food product exports, already the biggest American export category to Cuba, have grown by almost 120 percent since 2001,”
      - “Food product exports, already the biggest American export category to Cuba, have grown by almost 120 percent since 2001,”
    - - Tourism
        
        estimated 700,000 Americans visited the island last year
      - Cuba wants our business to invest in them
      - USA has the fourth largest source of imports to Cuba based solely on authorized shipments of agriculture and medical supplies. We are also on of Cuba’s top food suppliers
      - Needs to liberalize its state-centric economic system if it only hopes to allow its people to prosper
      - “Without Soviet subsidies, many observers reasoned, Cuba was ripe for change”
      - • “Our travel and remittance policies are helping Cubans by providing alternative sources of information and opportunities for self-employment and private property ownership, and by strengthening independent civil society. “
      - Cuban economy collapse at end of 1960 was relieved due to help of soviet Union, maybe we could do the same thing today?
  - - - we won't have mass exodus of Cuban refugees anymore
      - more cuban culture
    - - Cubans need our influence
      - Need to free political prisoners
      - stop arresting people for free speech
      - Cubans would be happier to live in Cuba if they had better condition
  - - - Two countries working more together to combat terrorism and internet security, cooperation comes at an embassy level. (Vick)
    - - U.S. President John F. Kennedy thought the chance of escalation to war was “between 1 in 3 and even” and what we have learned in later decades has done nothing to lengthen those odds. Also, the addition of nuclear armed ballistic missiles today adds an extra threat.
    - - United States and Cuba are ready to better relations
- - - - Bipartisan Freedom to Export to Cuba Act
        
        knocks down the legal barriers to Americans doing business with China
        
        Enable new partnerships with Cuban companies
        
        possibility for American company growth
        
        This bill lifts the trade embargo on Cuba
      - New Bill
        
        Create Jobs
        
        help farmers
        
        especially in Minnesota
        
        My home State of Minnesota exported about $20 million in agricultural products to Cuba in 2013. I think people are surprised by that, but as many of us know, there are humanitarian exceptions to the current embargo. So our country is already exporting, and my State alone exported $20 million in products. With the President’s action alone, the Minnesota Department of Agriculture estimates that exports could increase by another $20 million
        
        Open up new economic opportunity for American Businesses
        
        Cuba would have access to new products
      - Obama instructed the Secretary of State to initiate discussions with Cuba about diplomatic relations what were hurt in January of 1961
      - New policies make it easier for Americans to provide business Training for private Cuban Businesses and small farmers and provide other support for growth of Cuba’ Nascent private sector.
      - Remittance levels raised from $500 to $2,000 so that Cuban people can have the opportunity to have money sent to back to them
      - Licensed U.S. traveler to Cuba will be authorized to import $400 worth of goods from Cuba, meaning it will enable Cuba to sell its product to American people
    - - Leadership
        
        Fidel castro
        
        Died on November 5th 2016
        
        Led communist government
        
        Any outspoken opponents were executed
        
        oppressing people so economy hasn't had the chance to blossom
        
        Raul Catro
        
        Successor of FIdel
        
        No groundbreaking policies
        
        committed environmentalist
        
        11 million people imprisoned by Castro’s communist regime
      - Social conditions
        
        only a fourth of Cubans have internet access
        
        best cellular service is 2G
        
        In the first two months of 2016 alone, the Cuban Commission for Human Rights has documented a staggering 2,588 political arrests
        
        Cuban human rights activist Yoani Sanchez wrote:
        It is impossible for Cubans to buy staples like eggs or cooking oil without turning to the underground market. Rationing forces people to stand in line for hours for poultry and fish. On the Cuban government’s fiftieth anniversary in 2009, it provided families with an extra half pound of ground beef, but that beef was not from the U.S. It was sponsored by the Venezuelan government ... a meager gift nicknamed “Hugo Chavez’s Hamburger” by everyday Cubans.
        
        The Cuban Commission for Human Rights documented over 900 political arrests by the Castro regime in the month of December 2015 and 1,400 in January 2016 alone.
        
        • “Cuba has an internet penetration of about five percent—one of the lowest rates in the world. The cost of telecommunications in Cuba is exorbitantly high, while the services offered are extremely limited”
      - Economic conditions
        
        -Late 1900’s Cuba was on a economic decline
        
        “Cuba's economy is largely state-controlled, with the government owning most means of production and employing over 80 percent of the workforce”
        
        Sugar production, which remains the backbone of the national economy, tumbled to about 3.3 million tons last year, the lowest in many decades, leaving Cuba unable to meet its international trade obligations. Cuba has borrowed heavily in Europe at high interest rates to support a much-increased harvest this year.
        
        At the other extreme, some argue that Castro is the only person who benefits from the embargo, which he uses as a scapegoat for his repression and mismanagement of the economy. According to this line, the U.S. move toward rapprochement was making enough headway that it had to be stopped, and shooting down the small planes was the way to do it.
        
        The Cuban economy, which has declined up to 50 percent since the collapse of Castro's Soviet patron in 1989, may have stabilized; Cuban leaders claim that it grew about 2.5 percent in 1995. In any event, such stabilization or growth as there was flowed mainly from expanded tourism, reforms Castro didn't really want to make, and a relatively vibrant underground economy.
      - Events / Government
        
        Independent nation in 1902
        
        New constitution in 1976 setting forth the Cuban communist party
        
        power handed down with a sort of dynasty
        
        Military plays big role in government
        
        1994 We created a naval quarantine around Cuba which enabled us to receive support of the Organization of American States
      - Relations with USA
        
        Since the early 1960’s the United states policy in regards to Cuba have basically isolating the island through comprehensive economic sanctions, including an embargo on trade and financial transactions
        
        Relations with Cuba deteriorated sharply when Fidel Castro began to build a communist dictatorship and moved his country to have a relationship with the Soviet union
        
        The CDA prohibits U.S. subsidiaries from engaging in trade wiih Cuba and prohibits entry into the United States for any sea-borne vessel to load or unload freight if it has been involved in trade with Cuba within the previous 180 days. The Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act, enacted in the aftermath of Cuba's shooting down of two U.S. civilian planes in February 1996, combines a variety of measures to increase pressure on Cuba and provides for a plan to assist Cuba once it begins the transition to democracy. Most significantly, the law codified the Cuban embargo, including all restrictions under the CACR.”
        
        “The current embargo has been in place for 50 years, and it has greatly constrained opportunities for American businesses by restricting commerce by restricting our exports — things that are made in America — from going to a place that is only 90 miles off our shores and has 11 million people.”
    - - Favored over other types of immigrants
        
        Cuban People leaving behind their country due to economic difficulties
        
        Establish and enforce immigration policy enacted the Cuban Refugee Adjustment Act in 1966. The CAA provides special provisions conferring legal status for Cuban refugees and serves as an escape towards freedom and justice for the Cuban People
      - Affects of immigrants on US
        
        Cuban crisis led to thousands of cuban prisoners coming over from cuba to US
        
        Over 100,000 refugees brought over to the keys and to south Florida
        
        violence in Miami
  - - - U-2 affair- U.S spy plane shot down over the Soviet Union and the United states didn’t admit it was ours until they showed us the pilot and we were forced to.
        
        Increasing tensions
        
        Shows the USA was just as guilty in the spying game and offensive aspect
        
        Cuba and Russia had no reason to trust us
      - massive retaliation- During the 1950’s the Eisenhower administration had cut back on conventional military forces and placed substantial emphasis on air power and nuclear weapons, announcing the doctrine of massive retaliation by which any communist attack on the free world would be met with a massive attack on the soviet union itself.
        Flexible response doctrine.
        
        Both sides were just looking for ways to one up one another
        
        Constant fighting back and forth and retaliation
        
        If this were to happen again there is a good chance one person would overstep a boundary and it would initiarte a war
        
        Fine line between war and peace
      - October 14th 1962 – the united states discovers soviet offensive missiles in Cuba and issues an ultimatum demanding their removal. Cuba is quarantined and placed under a U.S Naval blockade. After several days of tense confrontation, the Soviets agree to remove their missiles on the 28th of October
        
        What this means
        
        Most likely would have drawn in other countries as well
        
        United States is on the verge of a possible atomic world war
        
        We had a literal wall around cuba to prevent them from doing anything or going anywhere
        
        Cuba has nuclear weapons on our doorstep ready to fire
      - November 17th, 1960 – The CIA briefs Kennedy on the plans to back Cuban Exiles in an invasion of Cuba at the Bay of Pigs
        
        April 17th 1961 – the invasion at the Bay of pigs fails and the surviving members of the force are captured and imprisoned ‘
        
        Effects
        
        Increased tensions with Cuba leading to missile crisis
        
        Soldiers who survived are captured, imprisoned and tortured
        
        Lives lost for no reason
    - - Fidel Castro
      - Communist government
      - opponents were executed
    - - During Cuban Missile Crisis
        
        Student were kept up to date with what was going on
        
        american hatred towards Cuba was at an all time high
        
        Children had school drills to practice what to do
        
        Fear united America
        
        People were sure there was going to be a nuclear war, reached DEFCON 2
      - Following Cuban Missile Crisis
        
        “the 1980 exodus of around 125,000 Cubans to the United States in the so-called Mariel boatlift; the 1994 exodus of more than 30,000 Cubans who were interdicted and housed at U.S. facilities in Guantánamo and Panama; and the February 1996 shoot-down by Cuban fighter jets of two U.S. civilian planes operated by the Cuban American group Brothers to the Rescue, which resulted in the death of four U.S. crew members”
      - Americans have always wanted Cuban cigars
    - - Prior to the enactment of the CAA, the United States face not only military threats, but also the probability of a nuclear war, political chaos, and a massive migration of refugees.
      - The Soviet Union had deployed 100 tactical nuclear weapons to Cuba, and they could have been launched very easily.
        If it weren’t for good decisions of John F. Kennedy we could have faced nuclear annihilation.
      - “In October 1962, a U.S. spy plane caught the Soviet Union attempting to' sneak nuclear-tipped missiles into Cuba, 9o miles off the United States' coast. Kennedy determined at the outset that this could not stand. After a week of secret deliberations with his most trusted advisers, he announced the discovery to the world and imposed a naval blockade on further shipments of armaments to Cuba. “
      - Russian Involvement
        
        Cuba was the only communist country able to deploy their armed forces thousands of miles from its border to participate in wars that were partly related to the defense of the homeland.
        
        Soviet Union Provided massive economic, military and political support for Cuba