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2017 MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK (Europe (UK moderate slowdown (hyper inflation,…
2017 MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
US
Growth: 2.25%
upward pressure on inflation
economic policies
tax reform
fiscal easing
infrastructure spending
Europe
growth 1.5%
unemployment down
disinflation pressure lessen
recovery more stable
growth drivers
easier fiscal policy
political risk
General elections in Ger, France
UK moderate slowdown
hyper inflation
sterling depreciation
China
Growth 6.5%
de-emphasize less important policy target
credit growth
promising areas
improving external environment
infrastructure spending growth
consumer spending
Risks
groth target&stimulus vs. longer term structural imbalances
Asia
drivers
productivity catch-up
China managing financial imbalances &risks, keeping a stable trajectory growth
risks
external
US fed reserve
broader developed trajectory market interest rates
US dollars
US protectionism
internal
elections
territorial disputes - Korean
nuclear proliferation