Judgment: Drawing Conclusions From Evidence

Judgement Heuristics

Anchoring

Detecting Covariation

Assessing The Damage

The Wide Range of Availability Effects

The Representativeness Heuristic

The Availability Heuristic

Reasoning From the Population to an Instance

Attribution Substitution

What Causes Illusory Covariation?

Base Rates

Theory-Driven and Data-Driven Detection of Covariation

Base-Rates Nelect

Illusions of Covariation

The Importance of Data Format - Frequency

Codable Data

The Importance of Circumstances

Background Knowledge

Dual-Process Models

Training Participants to use Statistics

More-Sophisticated Judgment Strategies

Thinking about Evidence