We are often wrong about what is happening in the world
Gap Instinct
How to overcome?
Beware averages
Causes for it?
Dealing with averages
Negativity
Instinct
Understand that rather than groups, humility is a curve
Causes for it?
Emotional response
Attraction
Helped keep us alive
Holds our attention
Nostalgia
Selective reporting
Avoid labels
Avoid "west" and "rest"
Avoid "us" and "them"
How to overcome?
Look for...
Understand that...
Gradual improvement != news
Different sources of information
The past isn't always better
Straight Line
Instinct
Why is it an issue?
Idea that trends will continue as present
How to overcome?
Get access to better data
Faulty projections
Different common trends
S-Bends
Slide
Humps
Doubling lines
Fear Instinct
Causes for it?
How to overcome it?
Evolution
Poor threat assessment
What is it?
Belief things are getting worse
Belief in an "us" and "them"
See if there is a gap
Easier to picture it
Check for overlap between groups being described
Ever present in media
"top level" viewing
Differences between Level 3 and Level 2 appear from Level 4 but huge for the people at those levels
Avoid "top level" viewing
Majority exists in the middle
Pessimistic outlook
Media filter
Don't trust the news
Fear != danger
Don't be driven by it
Size Instinct
Causes for it?
Inability to reason about large numbers
Get caught up in individual cases
How to overcome?
Never take a number in isolation
Numbers taken in isolation
80/20
Look for percentages
Look for a trend
Put things in proportion
Generalisation Instinct
Why is it an issue?
Unable to see the details
Treat very different groups the same
How to overcome it?
Examine the groups
Look for differences
Look for similarities
Assumptions 
Beware the majority
Can be just 51%
FPTP
Beware exceptional examples
Look for the normal
Put risk in perspective
Don't assume people know what you do
Destiny Instinct
What is, will always be
How to overcome?
Look for change
Gradual change adds up
Needn't be drastic
Question your knowledge
Never stands still
Look at the data
Find examples
Race relations
Attitudes to homosexuality
Single Perspective Instrinct
To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail
Treating different groups the same
General direction change
Good news isn't shown
Why is it an issue?
Limits imagination
Only seeing problem from one angle
How to overcome?
Test your ideas
Find differing POV
Discuss
Don't trust experts outside their field
Issues rarely solved from one idea
Look at the numbers
Understand what numbers are describing
Beware the simple solution
Cultures change
Blame Instinct
Someone is responsible for this through malice intentions
Why is an issue?
Creates scapegoats
Tends to simplify complex issues
How to overcome?
Look for causes
Don't create a villain
Trust in systems
Don't create heros
Instituations
Technology
Refugees
Immigrants
Foreigners
Urgency Instinct
Why is it an issue?
Pressured by time constraints into making a decision
Bad decision making
Not enough time to...
Think about the "why"
Look for number
Find consquences
Easy to manufactor
How to overcome?
Calculate the riks
Take small steps
Breathe
Insist on data
Beware fortune tellers
Avoid drastic action
We are bad at visualising the very large or very small
It will go that way forever