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In class Midterm, 10/3/2018 (Bardach's 8 Steps: DACSPCST (Project the…
In class Midterm, 10/3/2018
Bardach's 8 Steps:
DACSPCST
Project the Outcomes
Confront the Trade-Offs
Select the Criteria
Construct the Alternatives
Stop, Focus, Narrow, Deepen, Decide!
Assemble the Evidence
Tell Your Story
Define the Problem
Dunn's 5 Competing Values (Tradeoffs):
example of campus-free tobacco
EESLD
Security
Liberty
Equity
Democracy
Efficiency
Dunn's Policy Argument:
example of flu vaccinations
CIWQBOR
CLAIM
WARRANT
BACKING
OBJECTION
QUALIFIER
OBJECTION
INFORMATION
OBJECTION
REBUTTAL
Dunn's Policy Analysis:
Prospective and Retrospective
Prospective: example of Zika Virus
ex ante: analysis of data before policy implementation (forecasting)
Retrospective: example of Flooding in Houston
ex post: research of data after policy implementation (historical)
Dunn's 5 Policy Analysis Methods
PFPME
Prescription: methods that lead to preferred policies
Monitoring: methods that capture observed outcomes
Forecasting: methods that project expected outcomes
Evaluation: methods that determine value and/or utility of observed policy outcomes
Problem Structuring: methods that identify what problem to solve
Dunn's Models of Policy Change
Critical Convergence: policy changes occurs at critical moments where problems, policies, and politics converge.
Bounded Rationality: because no one individual can achieve a high degree of rationality, decision makers exhibit satisficing behavior and only select readily identifiable minimally acceptable alternatives
Comprehensive Rationality: exhaustive process to identify the most "net" efficient economic alternative
Kraft's Models of Policy Change
Elite Theory: smaller, unrepresentative powerful groups of people shape public policy
Group Theory: continuous struggle among organized interest groups where power is pluralists and may provide counterbalance power against one group or another
Dunn's 4 Characteristics of Problem Structuring
ISAI
Subjectivity: problem definition dependent on each analyst's view
Artificiality: problems are socially constructed by individuals/groups who define the problems
Interdependency: problems are interconnected with other areas
Instability: problems (and solutions) are in constant flux
Dunn's 3 Classes of Policy Problems
well/mod/ill structured
Moderately Structured: few decision makers, limited solutions, bargaining values, uncertain outcomes, estimates of probabilities
Ill Structured: many decision makers, unlimited solutions, conflicting values, risky outcomes, estimation of probabilities
Well Structured: one decision maker, one solution, consensus, certain outcome, deterministic probabilities
Dunn's Advocacy:
Multiple Advocacy vs Over-Advocacy
Multiple Advocacy: an approach that calls for systematic comparison and critical assessment of multiple potential solutions
Over-Advocacy: analyst does not cover full range of alternatives nor include unpopular alternatives; analyst does not challenge client to face unpopular decisions, analyst relies on single source of information; neither client nor analyst critically review consensus findings
Dunn's Model Choices:
Simple Model vs Complex Model
Simple Model of Choice: single decision-maker, outcomes are known with certainty, immediate consequences (results) follow the course of action
Complex Model of Choice: complex situations with intransitive choices (conflicting and nonranking)
Dunn's 5 Guidelines for Interpreting Arguments
Distinguish between surface meanings of words, sentences, arguments and the meaning in the context of the arguer
Try to understand what the arguer is trying to say
Look for concealed meanings in words, sentences, and arguments
Look for terms that are used pejoratively to discredit a person or policy
Policy Argumentation should contain: debate, present valid conclusions; persuade others
Kraft's 5 Instruments of Government Action
Education. Information, and Persuasion
Taxing and Spending
Government Management
Market Mechanisms
Regulation
Kraft's 8 Evaluation Criteria for Judging Policies
Liberty/Freedom
Political Feasibility
Equity
Social Acceptability
Efficiency
Administrative Feasibility
Effectiveness
Technical Feasibility