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Forecasting Methods
A calculation or estimate of future events,…
Forecasting Methods
A calculation or estimate of future events, especially coming weather or a financial trend.
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Qualitative
Delphi Method
A panel of experts is interrogated by a scequence of questionnaries in wich the responses to one questionaire are used to produce the next questionnaire. Any set of information avaible to some experts and not others in thus passed on to the others, anabling all the experts to have access to all the information for forecasting. This techqnique eliminastes the bandwaon effect of majority opinion.
Data Required
A coordinator issues the sequence of questionnaries, editing and consolidating the responses.
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Market Research
The systematic, formal and conscius procedure for envolving and testing hypotheses about real market.
Data required
As a minumin, two set of reports over time. One needs a considerable collection of market data from questionaires, surveys, and time series analyses of market variable.
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Panel Consensus
This techinique is based on the assumption that several experts can arrive at a better forecast that one person. There is no secrecy, and commnunication is encouraged. The forecasts are sometimes influenged by social factors, and many not reflect a true consensus.
Data Required
Information from a panel of experts is presented openly in group meetings to arrive at a consensus forecast. Again, a minimum is two sets of reports over time.
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Visionary Forecast
A prophecy that uses personal insights, judgment and, when possible, facts about deferent scenarios of the future. It is characterized by subjetive guess worl and imagination; in general, the methods used are non-scientific.
Data Required
A set of possible scenarios about the future prepared by a few experts in light of past events
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Historical Analogy
This is a comparative analysis of the introduction and growth of similar new products that bases the forecast on similarity patterns
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Causal Methods
Regression Model
This functionally relates sales to other economic, competitive, or intenal variables and estimates on equation using the least-square technique. Relationship are primary analyzed statistically, although any relationship ahould be selected for testing on a rational ground.
Data Require
Several year´quarterly history to obtain good, meangful relationships.Mathematically necessary to have two more observations than there are independient variables.
Time required to develop and aplication and make a forecast
Depends on ability to indentify relationships
Econometric Model
An econometric model is a system of independient regression equations that describes some sector of economic sales of profit activity. The parameters of the regression equations are usually estimated simultaneously. As a rule,these models are relatitively expensive to develop. However, due to the system of equations inherent in such models, they will better express the casualities involved that an ordinary regression equation and hence will predic turning points more accurately
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Intention to But and Anticipation Surveys
These surveys of the general public determine intentions to buy certain products or derive an index that meansures general feelings about the present and the future and estimates how this feeling will afec buying habits. These aproaches to forecasting. The basic problem in using them is that a turning point may be signaled incorrecly( and hence never occur)
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