Antifragile
First 17 minutes
Black swan
Consecutive catastrophic events. Can't be well predicted
Drives much of history
The more rare an event, the less accurrately we can predict it
Human mind tricks us into believing that because something is explainable that we could or were close to predicting it.
Antifragile
Becomes stronger with randomness
Is an attribute of something and is nonpredictive
You can assess fragility, how something would respond to catastrophic events without predicting the occurence of such events
Exists on a spectrum and in comparison to alternatives
Should not be gained by exposing others to more fragility (morals?)
Says this is more the case than any time in history
Bankers, academics, etc all are rewarded by randomness, not held acountable, weild large influence but don't face risk/have skin in the game.
Second drive
Antifragile
Benefits from group of disorder
time
randomness
stress
Simplicity is best
Simple is best but difficult in modern life
Complexity comes with cascading unintended consequences, each less predictable than the last
Long Gamma: Antifragile
Short Gamma: Fragile
Questions/Discussion points
Examples of the antifragile
What is in the group of antifragile
This dude's an asshole, good or bad thing?
I find it interesting that morals seem to be a consistent theme in this book.
Is a load balancer antifragile? Benefits from stress
If antifragile is in relation to alternatives, is a microservice architecture antifragile, because it can better compartmentalize failure? Does it also open us up to trying to predict more types of failures? (network, infrastructure...)
Morals
It is immoral to see a nefarious activity and accept it or not call it out.
It is immoral to see a nefarious activity and accept it or not call it out. Idea worth exploring: In all situations? What if it would bring harm to others? Does it have to be immediate?
8-30
Domain dependence
Fortification, something permethius, training immunity via small doses of poison. Chaos monkey
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8-30 evening
Examples of antifragile
Redundancy: viewed as an investment
Excess inventory can be sold in a crisis for huge profit
Body. Lifting 330, your body responds by increasing capacity to lift more
Fragile risk prediction, asseses risk based on the worst past event
, but that event was worse than any previous event that would have been used as the benchmark before it.
8-31
Ideas and books antifragilw
Dress code heuristic. More outragous more antifragile
Information attacks just benefit victims. No press is bad press. Why attack this person
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9-1
Punished by priveledge
9-4 morning
Antifragility internal vs external
Systems can be antifragile when they benefit themselves from stressors
Fragile parts can also produce an antifragile system. As in evolution, the weaker members die off, leading to the strengthening of the group as a whole. This is because the survivors are presumable the stronger 50% apprx and they continue to pass on their genetic information
Key difference between an antifragile and fragile system (plane system vs economic system
Plane crashes are isolated and the system can learn from and improve after errors
Global economic systems are fragile because they are so interconnected that errors are not learned from. Instead, they propagate, causing more errors and interconnected failures.