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india -usa new (US PULLS OUT FROM INTERNATIONAL DEALS AND ORGANISATIONS…

- - - - • Withdrawal from TPP will be a significant step in the slide
        towards a more protectionist world..
      - • China is hoping to galvanize two regional trade proposals —
        the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Free-Trade Agreement of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP).
  - - - on allegation of baisness in unhrc against its resolution
        against human rights voilation of israel
      - consequence of this is regime which are not well known for protection of human rights like north korea in middle east will become more regressive as u is diluting its role of world police
      - move is very hypocritical of us as it withdraws from unhrc and publishes its own human rights report
  - - - but us through sanctions wants
        regime change in iran
      - new cold war in middle east
        us backed saudi vs russia backed iran
      - iran switching oil trade from dollar to renminbi
      - iran able to withstand sanctions
        so usa now applied caatsa
      - there is no legitimate interlocuter
        b/w usa and iran like dere in usa and north krea i.e south korea
    - - iineefective sanctios
        not much as like russia which switched over to china: $ 400 billion gas pipeline deal
        similarly now a direct train fom china reaches to iran
      - sanctions are criticised by eu, as even iaea after 11 rounds of inspection held that iran is complying to jcpoa
        
        this further weakens nato
      - even india under caatsa held that
        india follows un sanctions not us sanctions
      - though sanction on iran may hurt three core interest of india in
        middle east 3C i.e in case of iran
        
        crude:
        iran is 3rd largest exporter of oil to india nad indian refinary are suited for iranian crude
        
        chabar:
        india has strategic interest in tacking gwadar nas route to afganistan
        
        commerce:
        instc which will link centaral india or india gate way of central india
- - - - IT ASK UN AND OTHER MULTILATEAL INS. TO CONSIDER US'S INTEREST RAHER THAN DETRIMENTAL TOWARDS IT
- - - - thus china accuses usa of waging largest tarde war in hstroy
      - it would not only hurt china but global supply chains :
        it will have an domino effect
      - import duty are in contravention with wto norms
  - - - becoz of
        backtracing of welfare state
      - globalisation :loss of jobs
        which shifted manufacturing towards states havinf comparitive advantage : china: manufacturing and india: services
      - this has increased
        inqualities in countries
        which were promotor of globalisation: best depicted in
        global elephant curve
      - reaffims marxian notion :
        capitalism dig there own grave
        similry haber mass's legitimation cisis
    - - china's vsion of make in china in 2025:
        by which china wants to leader in core techs like
        
        5g
        fintech: blockchain
        quantum tech
        artifical intelligence
        also china wants to make renminbi universal
- - - - 1. USA’s withdrawal from Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
        
        • USA imposed unilateral sanctions on Iran after its withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Deal.
        
        This has increased oil prices, foreign exchange outflows, weakened Rupee valueand would affect India’s oil trade with Iran which was its third biggest source of oil in 2017.
        
        • It may also affect the progress of the International North South Transport Corridor and the Chabahar port in Iran which India sees as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia bypassing Pakistan
      - CAATSA is likely to affect India’s arms procurement from Russia in a number of ways -
        
        o India’s planned procurement from Russia, particularly the S-400 Triumf air defence system worth
        
        $4.5 billion,Ka226T helicopters,(though us has decided to give india a waiver under caatsa)
        
        o It would also affect India’s purchase of spare parts, components, raw materials and other assiatance for which india is dependent on russia
      - Potential Impacts of these sanctions on India-US relations
        
        • Heighten India’s traditional insecurity about the US as a reliable partner impacting New Delhi’s defence and security cooperation with Washington, for instance, US designating India as a Major Defence partner
        
        • Huge loss for the American Companies- taking part in several mega procurement contracts that is being aggressively pushed through its newly announced Strategic Partnership (SP) model as part of its Make in India and diversification policies.
        
        this makes caatsa virtually imeffective as caatsa will cutoff america's trade wit more than half of nations hurting its company ultimately
        
        us decides to give waiver to india under caatsa regarding s400 deal from russia
        
        caatsa enacted after russsia'a meddling into us election
        
        significance of the move
        
        waiver comes admist normalisatio of relations betwenn russia and us
        
        india has been able to assert strategic autonomy by not nowing down to caatsa :mea
        
        it shows importance of india for us.. where strong india economically, strategically and militarily is in favour of usa . as inida is only country that can counter china in asia & maintain balance of powerthus strenthgening of indo- pacific narritive
        
        significance of indian daispora in usa
        
        india should pursue similar waiver wrt to iran
    - - The US is ingeniously employing extraterritorial sanctions to advance its geopolitical and commercial interests to boost its own arms sales.
- - - - • It is seen as a
        strategic deterrence
        as well as a mechanism to provide more and better options to regional powers.
      - It was convened around the
        theme of a “free and open Indo-Pacific”
      - • It is an
        informal strategic dialogue
        and not a military alliance like the NATO.
    - - • India highlighted its
        Act East Policy
        as the cornerstone of its engagement in the Indo-Pacific region.
      - • It was Japanese Prime Minister Abe who conceived the idea of Asian democracies joining forces in 2007
        2+2 dailogue: daimond
      - the maritime democracies
        have a stake in securing a rules-based global order
        , liberal trading system and freedom of navigation
        : unclos
      - usa 's
        asia to pivot policy
    - - • The grouping is seen as building a
        strategic partnership to deal with China’s rise
        and its implications,
        which could clearly
        not be countered with India’s ‘neighbourhood first’ policy.
      - how? change_
        
        India has tacitly accepted that the presence of “other parties” in the region
        makes our neighbours feel more secure.
        daimond to counter string of pearls.
        
        THAT'S WHY IDIA HAS SUBCRIBED TO:
        
        2. JAPAN IN NORTH EAST
        
        3. india subscribing to indo pacific growth cooridor
        
        1. AAGC
    - - expected to push unnecessary enmity between India and China
        further intensifying the competition in the region.
        threatening indian ocean becoming
        zonne of conflict rather than zone of peace
        as highlighted at cairo confrence of nam
      - • It may come at the cost of India’s leverage and independent decision making in the region. which could
        trigger multiple regional rivalry in indian ocean
        like it started
        base race indian ocean b/e india and china
      - • While all Quad participants are members of EAS,
        India is still not a member of APEC.
        This lacuna needs to be remedied if India is to contribute to Indo-Pacific region effectively.
      - • India is the only member of the proposed coalition that is also part of another security arrangement involving China and Russia, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
        India’s ability to balance its interests will be tested