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india pakistan ((Challenges to India-Pak cooperation - (Fundamental…

- - - - Ideas of India and Pakistan;
      - Weak national identities;
      - Unequal military capabilities;
      - Different political culture; and
      - Size disparities.
  - - - Cooperation - inviting Pak PM to oath taking ceremony; agreeing to start FS level talks. Defection - calling of the talks when Pak High Commissioner insisted on meeting the separatist leaders.r
      - Cooperation - meeting with Sharif during Cricket world cup in Feb 2015, sending FS on SAARC yatra, decision to start NSA level talks. Defection - when Pak insisted on K, India limited talks to T.
      - Through cooperation India wants to show that it understands the need of engagement and be seen as responsible power. Through defection, India want to show that it will set the agenda. However, there is no concrete gain and the relation has come under considerable strain.t
      - Pakistan's changed policy towards India - instead of targeting general public, it has started targeting military and police to get new mileage, which it had lost after Mumbai attacks. Thus, it seems that Modi's policy is not resulting into any concrete gain.
      - AG Noorani - If we'll isolate Pakistan, it will result into greater alienation and greater terrorism.
  - - - never considered Pak a major threat and believed that Pak will automatically be drawn towards India.
    - - most prudential bilateral policy
    - - Diplomatically isolating Pakistan. But India has not been successful because Pak is a pivot state.
      - Explicit coalition diplomacy. India going beyond the prism of Pak and strengthening relation with Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE. India-Qatar defence agreement is little short of alliance.
      - Making terrorism the main issue and clarifying that terror and talk cannot go together.
      - NSA Ajit Doval describes the current approach as Offensive Defence - attacking from where offence is coming.
      - Modi has used three cards - Balochistan, GB and Indus Water Treaty.
      - To tackle China-Pak alliance, Act East, Act West and Act South. Uptill now there has been reluctance for closer relations with Japan. But now Japan has become a permanent member of Malabar exercise.
  - - - According to a study, granting MFN to India will increase bilateral trade from $2.3 billion to around $ 6-7 billion.
      - Wider trade with Pakistan will create possibility of transit trade beyond Pakistan, to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
      - For Indian exports, cost of trade will be reduced.
      - Pak can overcome its power shortage by importing electricity from India, provided proper infra is put in place.
      - Border trading points like Wagah-Attari will become major trading hubs.
  - - - At one level, it could be argued that a relationship has been managed reasonably well given the fundamental contradiction between India’s status-quoist approach to Kashmir which lies at the heart of their conflict and Pakistan’s determination to alter the status quo and obtain Kashmir
      - At another Indian policymaker’s inability to find there be out of the difficulty reflects the constraints imposed by major policy choices
- - - - Geo-economic - It will end Pak's dependence on South Asia for regional economic cooperation.
        
        Reduces India's influence in South Asia as india's neighbours will be keen to join bri on account to huge investment from china
      - Geo-strategic - India-China policies can be understood as containment and counter-containment. Once China is able to connect Kashgar with Gwadar, China's Malacca dilemma ends and India's Gwadar dilemma begins.
      - With CPEC, the neutral stand on Kashmir China has been maintaining since Kargil comes to an end.
      - China-Pak relations are devoid of sentimentalism. China till today has been transactional in its dealing. But now the relations may take strategic turn after China invests billions of dollars.
        
        CPEC is actually a land grab strategy of China.
    - - Ashok Malik - The question is not just of India's sovereignty, CPEC will undermine the very fundamental of India's Pakistan policy. It rewrites economic geography and regional integrity of sub-continent.+
        
        Fundamental of India's Pak policy - Since Nehru, the belief that sooner or later Pakistan will be compelled to do business with India either by enlightenment, internal pressures or global currents. CPEC alters this scenario. It ends Pak's dependence on North-South trade corridor and places Pak on East-West corridor. Hence, there will be no compulsion for Pakistan to come closer to India. Pakistan, already, emphasises on its West Asian identity. Thus, culturally in West Asia and economically in Chinese zone, Pak would no longer require integration with South Asia.
        
        The second aspect of India's Pak policy is to isolate Pakistan. CPEC will make isolation irrelevant as Pak will be on critical transit route.
        
        Hence, CPEC is an expression of New Economic and Strategic Geography.
      - Rumel Dahiya (IDSA) - As China is investing a huge amount of money in PoK, tomorrow it may emerge as third party to the dispute of Kashmir because it would be difficult for the Chinese to ignore their $46 billion in the region. It may tomorrow change its erstwhile stand on Kashmir.
      - S. Akbar Zaidi (Columbia University) - He is sceptical of the project and says that it may result into loss of economic sovereignty for Pakistan as it does not have any indigenous economic strategy.
      - Conclusions - India needs to adopt multi-pronged approach to counter BRI - early completion of Chabahar port to counter Gwadar dilemma, convey our concerns to China, strengthen our military and develop multiple with other countries of the region.
  - - - P. Stobdan - China is attempting to replicate in PoK the well-perfected policy it has applied earlier in Tibet and Xinjiang. One should not be surprised by Beijing working on a plan to grab the entire GB. However, India can do little to stop BRI or scuttle the CPEC. India’s non-participation would lead to isolation and loss of clout at the regional level. Joining BRI will lead to better integration of India into Asia and Europe.
      - Hitherto Pakistan’s federal institutions had maintained that Gilgit-Baltistan is a UN declared disputed area and her residents cannot be declared citizens of Pakistan until India and Pakistan resolve the issue of accession of Jammu and Kashmir
        
        • In 2009, Pakistan had passed a Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self-Governance Order in the Cabinet which granted self-rule to the people by creating a legislative assembly and a council but it did not provide for any constitutional means of linking it to Pakistan.
      - • Now Pakistan’s Cabinet has approved to an executive order namely Gilgit-Baltistan Order 2018 toreplace the above order and begin legislative, judicial and administrative measures to integrate GilgitBaltistan with the rest of the federal structure of Pakistan as its fifth province
      - The idea of granting provincial status to Gilgit-Baltistan has gained momentum since work on the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passing through the region, and order aims to alleviate China's concerns about the unsettled status of Gilgit-Baltistan as (CPEC) passes through the disputed region.
      - • Further such a measure also aims to hide the grave human rights violations, exploitation and denial of freedom to the people residing in Pakistan occupied territories.
    - - • The political situation between India and Pakistan is affecting the performance of treaty..
        
        pakistan also opposed several india's run of the river projects like: baglihar dam, ratle dam on chenab river Kishanganga hydro power project in Jammu and Kashmir.
        
        • The project began in 2009 but in 2010 Pakistan appealed to Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitrationcomplaining that the project violated the Indus River Treaty and deprived Pakistan the water share to its power project which is under construction at Neelam valley in PoK, as the Kishanganga river flows into Pakistan.
        
        on these accounts there have been demands in pakisan to review iwt
        
        revision of treaty is also more required in wake of climate change and subsequent call for interlinking of river
        
        like pm modi held that bloodd and water can't flow together thus india can utilize uppper riparian status for strategic status
      - arguments against revoking of iwt
        
        it would be a formal beging of water wars as china which is upper riprian state of indua as well as brahmaputra and party to treaty is engaged in water grap or north southh transfer project . this may affect both india and pakistan.
        
        this would make lower riperian state like bangladesh and upper riperian state like nepal suspcepibal
        
        india didn't have infrastructure to even use allowed 20% of water
        
        revocation will attract global condemation of india as the deal is brokered by world war and deal has syrvived two wars b/w india nd pak.
      - Drawbacks of Indus Water Treaty • According to UNDP report titled ‘Development Advocate Pakistan’, the Treaty fails to address >.
        
        o Division of water during the shortage of river water flow. o
        
        The impact of storage of water on the Chenab river on Pakistan
        
        Treaty is criticised being highly technical which leads to far ranging interpretations and divergence
    - - Track II Diplomacy
        
        1 TRACK 2 DIPLOMACY
        
        • Current meeting was held from April 28th to April 30th, 2018, in Islamabad and the two sides discussed issues related to Kashmir, Siachen, terrorism, cross-border firing, Sir Creek and also Afghanistan but both sides did not make any official statements on the event.
        
        One of the oldest Track-II initiatives (referred as Neemrana dialogue) between India and Pakistan and was first held in 1991-92, in Neemrana Fort (Rajasthan).
        
        • It is also known as Backchannel Diplomacy, in which private individuals (such as former diplomats, military veterans, academicians etc.), meeting unofficially, can find their way to common ground that official negotiators can’t and the talks under it are not codified as official statements.
        
        • Strengths of Track II Diplomacy
        
        o It involves grassroots and middle leadership who are in direct contact with the conflict.
        
        o This diplomacy is not affected by electoral cycles.
        
        o Track Two parties are not subdued by political or constitutional power; therefore, they can express their own viewpoints on various issues.
        
        • Weaknesses of Track II Diplomacy
        
        o Its participants have limited ability to influence foreign policy and political power structures because of their lack of political influence.
        
        o Track Two interventions can take too long to yield results.
        
        o It has limited ability to influence change at the war stage of a conflict.
      - 2: SANCTIONS
        
        Recently Financial Action Task Force has put Pakistan on its terrorist financing watch list or the “grey list”.
        
        • The decision was long overduegiven Pakistan’s blatant violation of its obligations to crack down on groups banned by the Security Council Resolution 1267 sanctions committee that monitors groups affiliated to the Taliban such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and the Haqqani network.
        
        . Should Islamabad fail to submit an action plan, or if the FATF does not accept it, the group can place Pakistan on its blacklist or "Non-Cooperative Countries or Territories" (NCCTs)
        
        • US recently has placed Pakistan on a‘Special Watch List’ while also withholding USD 1.15 billion military aid and also announced re-designation of 10 countries as ‘Countries of Particular Concern’ (CPC).
        
        • India also excluded Pakistan from the list of SAARC member countries with which it will be connecting its National Knowledge Network (NKN).