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India: effects (Nepal-China (Way forward (Aspiration of nepal youth go…
India: effects
Nepal-China
In news
Nepal's quest for Alternative transit route and to reduce dependence on India, succeeded with finalisation of ''Protocol of Transit Transport Agreement'' with china in sept 2018
Transit agreement
China formally agreed to provide 7 transit points:
4 sea ports - Xinjiang, Shenzen, Lianyungang, Zhanjiang
3 land ports: Lanzhou, Lhasa, Xigatse
Chian will provide permit to trucks and containers ferrying Nepal-bound cargo to and from Xiatse in Tibet
-Any mode of transport permitted rail, road to access sea/dry ports
the protocol does not mention anything about Nepal’s overland access to the Central Asian and European markets.
Implication for Nepal
Benefits
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Nepal can trade with third world countries through sea port. Earlier they had to rely on Kolkatta port
Transit protocol doesn't specify any paths, allowing Nepal to choose viable routes
-More ports and dry ports can be added without amending treaty
-Nepali trucks may go all way till Xigatse railhead to pick goods
Constraints
It will give access to only western Industrial zones of china, whereas Nepaleese traders import most goods from China's south eastern Industrial cities
Mountaneous terrain not ideal for transporting oil and minerals. South route through India is considered viable
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Time and transport cost would be exorbhitant, even if china provided oil
-Importing from India would be cheaper due to geographical frontier
Concerns for India
India’s special relationship with Nepal might fade off eventually impacting social
and political linkages as well
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Way forward
Aspiration of nepal youth go beyond freindship, as they look for more "Land-links"
People-to-people inter-dependence must lead the relationshipalong with civil
society and business-commercial level interactions
India’s major foray should be in innovation and technology transfer,
Support more universities
India needs to formulate a comprehensive and long-term Nepal policy.
complete infa projects dams, connect more railways
India needs to revitalize communication with Nepal, respecting each other’s
sovereignty and non-interference in domestic affairs.
China-Africa
Arms export from china increased 55%
-Includes strategic advice, new tech , army modernisation
Internal security diplomacy
-China offered grant-in-aid for rapid response teams in africa
-taken steps to counter terrorism and combat money laundering
Technology diplomacy
-China exporting AI, big data tech
USA-Iran
Status of Iran
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After this deal, Tehran managed to double its oil exports, climb out of recession and contain inflation
Impact on India
Iran geographically has a strategic location.
If strait of Hormuz is blocked, draining out of oil from persin gulf will be blocked
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India cant yield under hands of USA, as chabahor port development might get affected and fall into chineese hands
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Africa-India
- As per UNCTAD report, Indian FDI in africa reduced since 2014
But, India is only one big investor to have reduced investment
- Export and import figures for India fell, while china's is more than that of India
-India's problem is concentration of investment in east africa and dependenc on petroleum products
-Diversified Economic engagement needed