Lecture 6: Effects of Climate Change on Human Activity

Ecosystems

Terrestrial Ecosystems

Marine Ecosystems

Extreme Weather

Desertification & Droughts

Storms & Cyclones

Variations in effects

Human Health

Migration

Crop Yield

Sea Level Rise (SLR)

communities of plants, animals and other organisms & the physical environment. many species shift their geographical ranges (habitat), seasonal activities, migration patterns etc. based on climate change

if forests damaged, habitat loss, threatens survival. climate change alters growing season/temp. patterns that trigger life cycle changes. effects more apparent in tundra (arctic region where subsoil is permafrost) as temp.s rise faster there.

as permafrost thaws (temp. increases), wetlands expand, attract more migratory birds. influxes of spring migrants from S occur earlier, longer breeding season. meanwhile, southern fringes of tundra will lose open aspect as tree line advances N, habitat changes. predators like snowy owls, which rely on lemming pop. will be forced northwards. migration patterns of animals e.g. caribou (type of reindeer), which spend summer on tundra, will be disrupted.

phenology, study of changes in timing of spring & other natural seasonal events (indicator of global warming). intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC): in past 30 years, spring occurred earlier by 2.3-5.2 days per decade on avg. creates a loss of synchronisation btw species: animals awaken from hibernation/start to breed b4 emergence of food e.g. leaves, insects.

raising sea surface temp.s (SSTs), threatens coral reef survival as bleaching & death possible w/ only small rise in H2O temp. in past 30-40 years, Indo lost half to bleaching.

warming of Arctic Ocean & shrinking of sea ice have decimated ice algae, the base of marine food chain. sea ice crucial to survival of marine mammals e.g. walrus (use coastal sea ice as diving platforms for foraging on sea bed & travel long dist.s on floating ice). other species use sea ice to rest, give birth, raise pups & moult. exposed on ice, they are hunted by polar bears. sea ice disappearance main reason for projected two-thirds decline in polar bear pop. by mid-century.

indigenous inuit hunters of Arctic have their economy & culture depend on hunting marine mammals, esp. seals, walrus, whales. thinning & melting ice makes hunting hazardous. with more open H2O, no. of killer whales increasing, so in direct competition with hunters.

Positive

Negative

'+' impacts relate mainly to high latitude regions. in N.Europe, climate change could increase winter wheat prod. in S.Sweden 10-20% over current lvls by 2050. Aus wheat yields have increased over past 50 years owing to new cultivars & changes in management. 30-50% of observed increase attributed to climate change, w/ increases in min. temp.s being dominant influence.

climate affects animal husbandry. extreme heat can affect animal health e.g. heat waves kill poultry, decrease milk prod. in cows

global warming prob shift growing areas by several hundred km per degree temp. increase, increasing agricultural productivity in some areas, decreasing too.

changes in CO2, temp., precipitation & soil moisture, individually or tgt, could alter crop prod. crops stressed by climate change as they become more vulnerable to damaging pests & diseases

affects wheat & maize yields for regions globally. e.g. in mediterranean region of S.Europe, grain yields prob decrease as an increased need for irrigation places added DD on areas w/ acute H2O shortages

low lying coastal regions may be subjected to flooding by SLR, affecting agriculture

dengue fever, spread by Aedes mosquito, formerly in tropics, today found in US. btw 1995-2005, 4000 cases reported. rising temp.s & increased rainfall favoured mosquitos spread

malaria leading cause of mortality in developing world, claiming 800,000 lives in a year. spread by Anopheles mosquitos which thrive in warm, wet conditions. disease seasonal throughout tropical Africa but could spread to malaria-free regions like S.Europe

high temp.s increase risk of food contamination by salmonella & other bacteria; heavier rainfall increases flood frequencies, probability of H2O supplies polluted by human waste. bacteria in drinking H2O multiply risk of diarrhoea, major cause of death among children in developing countries.

WHO forecasts add 250,000 deaths a year worldwide btw 2030 & 2050, linked to climate change & spread of diseases, malnutrition, diarrhoea

droughts & floods reduce crop yields & food prod. threatens food security & human wealth w/ widespread malnutrition in developing countries. IPCC forecasts significant reductions in staple cereal crops by 2030.

warmer atm hold more moisture. IPCC: atm 0.75C warmer than start of century, allows it to hold 5-6% more moisture (fuel for storms, bring torrential rains) due to high SSTs.

increase in drought events (prolonged spells of abnormally low rainfall)

2/3 of earth's surface covered by oceans which expand when warmed. this + add. H2O from melting glaciers Greenland & Antarctic ice sheets raise sea lvl. 1C, 2m rise. since 1900, avg rise 1.0-2.5mm/yr but 21st century, 3mm/yr.

CC alters regional agricultural & industrial potential, could trigger large scale migration, redistributions of ppl. can result in socioeconomic disruptions, '-' health impacts, increased human sufferings. e.g. more rapid desertification of semitropical regions will not provide time for gradual adaptation. increased precipitation results in floods, pop. need to abandon long inhabited floodplains. accelerate urbanisation as ppl move inland or from farms to cities.

some arid areas drier, warmer, likely to have more droughts. if climate zones shift or STH pressure cells increase in area & persistence-> droughts.

areas w/ no significant hist of droughts may have to cope but ill-equipped to accurately predict & deal w/ droughts

sahel region (africa) numerous droughts in past 40 yrs, accelerating desertification. 2015: Cali 4th successive year of drought.

desertification: phenomenon of conversion of land to that resembling desert. outcome of persistent land degradation, caused by deforestation, overgrazing, over cultivation (human activities) reduces agricultural productivity greatly.

2005 hurricane season in N.Atlantic Caribbean prod. 5 category 5 hurricanes & in August 2015, 3 large hurricanes (Kilo, Ignacio, Jimena) active simultaneously in Pacific

destroys beaches, wetlands, coastal civilisation due to erosion of coastline, inland flooding, increased vulnerability of infrastructure, salt H2O intrusion.

protection, stabilisation, replenishment of beaches require massive investments to retain economic value (tourism) e.g. most of Maldives less than 3m above sea lvl, can lose most of land

low-lying river deltas & coastal wetlands affected too. e.g. Ganges, Nile. In US, 1m sea lvl rise can cause 30,000 km2 coastal area inundated, 26-82% coastal wetlands eliminated

DCs will spend trillions of dollars to construct sea walls, dikes to hold back advancing sea. LDCs not able to afford such giant engineering projects e.g. Bangladesh (exp. mortalities in the millions from flooding by storm surges. 1.5m SLR would flood 16% of land area, displace 17M ppl

continuing SLR bad for densely pop river delta in India, Bangladesh, Egypt. need to migrate inland to escape flooding. e.g. 1m rise seriously affects nearly 100M ppl along China coasts. create infra prob.s w/ "CC immigrants"

vary due to regional diff.s in alteration of temp. & precipitation pattern OR diff. environments having diff. degrees of vulnerability to CC. vulnerability: ability of person/community to withstand exposure to, & risks from, effects of CC. depends on location & ability to cope.

people in poverty fewest entitlements to protect selves & fams against natural climatic hazards, & to cope w/ crop losses, property & steep rises in food prices. e.g. low-lying coastal territory like Bangladesh particularly threatened by SLR & more powerful tropical storms. storm surge (loss of lives, destroy crops, livestock, salinise soil, contaminate H2O supplies) in 1991 killed 138,000 ppl. hurricane Katrina 2005 1,400.

diff socio-economic circumstances in diff areas. CC predicted to decrease crop yields in Latin America, Asia, ME. sensitivity of agriculture, forestry, fisheries create probs for pop.s reliant on these pri industries. most rural comm.s in LDCs subsistence/semi-subsistence farmers. majority depend on direct rainfall for successful cultivation & raising of livestock. but CC make rainfall erratic, droughts, floods