TE 3

What is the situation: bull market in everything

bull market in everything

Why is it a source of anxiety

How: be cautious

Benjamin's "margin of safety" theory is worth heeding in troubled world

Bond market, creditors require little insurance

Property prices tower so high

Stock market, S&P 500 higher, even than during the two bubbles

Craze for exotica, e.g. cryptocurrencies

The price paid for a stock or a bond should allow for human error, bad luck or, indeed, many things going wrong at once.

booms are in the backdrop of loose monetary policy which government wants to unwind now

fund managers are becoming increasingly incautious

raise interest rates

see bondholdings

willingness to buy Eurobonds

Why is the price rising

low long-term interest rates

improving economy

policies of the Fed

rise in supply of saving and fall in demand of it

A better option: gradualism

A even more important option

A option: central banks raise rates more enthusiastically and less predictably