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technological unemployment (computing technology (establisehed computing…
technological unemployment
Introduction
Kenyes prediction
“due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour”
effects on labour market
current Labour market trends
reallocation of labour supply from middle-income manufacturing to low-income service occupations
falling prices of computing, problem solving skiulls are becoming relativly productive, explaining sustantial employment growth in occupations incvolving cognitive tasked where skilled labour has a comparative advantage
labour market polarisation, with growing employment in high-income cognitive jobs and low income manual occupations, accompanied by a hollowing-out of middle-income routine jobs
decline of employment in routine intensive occupations
future market trends
pace of technological innovation is still increasing, computerisation is no longer confined to routine manufacturing tasks
examples
autonomous driverless cars
computing technology
establisehed computing technology
secular price decline in the real cost of computing has created a vast economic incentives for employers to substitute labor for computer capital
limitations
Limited by the human ability to specify a problem in the sense that the criteria for success are quantifiable and can readily be evaluated. For programmers to write a set of procedures or rules that successfully follows the criteria for success
the current level of technology are able to substitute human labor in routine tasks
future computing technology
recent computing technology
increasing ability to turn non-routine tasks into well defined-problems and thereby threaten to substitute human labour on non-routine tasks
maschne learning
big data
besting humans at jeopardy, go
computing within non-routine tasks
cognitive
examples of this technology in the market
education
massive open online courses
labour intensive
medicine
cancer diagnosis
legal
fraud detection
recruitment
financial
process a greater number of of financial announcements, press releases, and other information than any human trader, and than act faster upon them
software engineerer
A.I. better at error detection
possible that AI. soon can write programs after human specifications
manual
more enhanced sensors and manipulators
robots that climb and maintain win turbines
more and more flexible surgical robots perform more types of operations
Cars that takes over more and more tasks, until the can drive on their own
effect on logistic jobs
agricultural vehicles, forklifts, cargo handling vehicles
Offering substitute to human labour within the cognitive domain
advantages over labour
scalability
absence of some human biases
value chain
aktivities
two-by two matrix
manual vs cognitive
routine vs non-routine